Consumer inflation in Ukraine will be higher in 2024 than before, due to lower harvest and the growth of the dollar exchange rate. In December, it will accelerate to 8.5%.
Impact of Harvest and Exchange Rate
As indicated in the report, in the first half of the year, price growth will be modest due to sufficient supply, thanks to the effects of good harvests in previous years. However, further inflation acceleration will be caused by the depletion of this factor against the background of the lower harvest in 2024 and the impact of the sluggish devaluation of the hryvnia on prices.
Predictions for the Future
Experts predict that by the end of the war in 2024, inflation will remain at 8.2%, and in the event of a continuation of the conflict, it will increase to 9.2%.
Comparison with Previous Years
In 2023, consumer inflation in Ukraine was 5.1%, significantly lower than in 2022 (26.6%).
Recent Trends
In March 2024, inflation in Ukraine decreased to 3.2%, which turned out to be lower than the National Bank’s forecast. The central bank explained this deviation by the dynamics of components that have an unpredictable nature, especially food prices.
